World Coffee Research and CIAT Unveil Science-Based Tool for Climate-Smart Coffee Replanting Investments

Key takeaways

• A science-based data platform for climate action. CafeClima is a free web platform that integrates the world’s largest dataset on coffee variety performance with advanced climate modeling to help farmers and funders make data-driven replanting decisions.
• De-risking a $4 billion investment gap. Billions of coffee trees that can endure the climates of the future need to be planted today.  Science-based tools like CafeClima can help reduce the risk of  urgently required renovation investment. 
• Protecting farmer productivity for the long term. By identifying which specific varieties are most likely to thrive in future environments, the tool helps farmers secure their productivity for the next 20 years and avoid the devastating lost time and capital of planting the wrong trees.

To secure future coffee supplies, millions of aging trees across the world must be replaced. Billions of coffee trees planted decades ago are now past their most productive years—an often overlooked driver of production losses linked to climate shocks, price volatility, and the spread of pests and diseases. Without rapid adaptation, land suitable for coffee production could fall 50% by 2050 if no action is taken, putting global supply, farmer livelihoods, and industry stability at risk.

A free, open-access tool launched today by World Coffee Research (WCR) and the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT equips the coffee sector with actionable predictive insight to identify which coffee varieties are most likely to thrive as climates change, linking the largest real-world dataset on variety performance with advanced climate projections for the first time.

CafeClima translates complex climate and performance data into practical guidance to support efficient, climate-smart renovation decisions across the global coffee sector. "The world needs to replace billions of coffee trees. The only thing more costly than inaction is action without insight," said Dr. Jennifer “Vern” Long, the CEO of World Coffee Research. "If the industry invests in planting millions of trees today that cannot survive the climate of 2040, we haven’t just lost capital—we’ve lost a crucial decade for coffee sector adaptation.”

CafeClima provides data-driven evidence needed to de-risk coffee renovation investments. It provides guidance needed to ensure that newly planted coffee trees are suitable for today’s climate—and likely climate scenarios for the decades to come.

De-risking billions of dollars in coffee tree renovation investment

To sustain current production levels, coffee trees already need replacement on some 4 million hectares, or the equivalent of the coffee-growing footprint in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Ethiopia combined – four of the world’s largest producers. Renovation should be based on climate-change-adapted varieties, which are foundational to building resilient, regenerative farming systems.

The transition to regenerative, climate-resilient coffee systems requires an influx of USD$4 billion over seven years, according to a 2025 investment case by TechnoServe.  The report from the international NGO found that precision investment in regenerative agriculture could lead to a 62% increase in income for farmers, and a 38% decrease in GHG emissions. 

Governments and supply chain actors have invested an estimated USD$1.2 billion in renovation and rehabilitation (R&R) in the last two decades. But these efforts have reached only about 5% of the 11.5 million smallholder farmers who urgently need new coffee trees.

Whether a farmer is replanting 10 trees or a government is replanting millions; renovation is a long-term investment. A coffee tree planted today acts as a 20-year contract with the future climate. Planting the wrong variety can have severe consequences, including lost time, capital, and productivity. Accelerating climate volatility is making it more difficult for farmers to make informed variety choices.

"CafeClima provides governments, development funders and private investors the information they need to make smart renovation investments. While improved genetics are advancing through global coffee tree breeding pipelines, it’s important to make the best decisions with the varieties we have today to reduce risk for farmers,” said WCR’s Dr. Long.

Bringing data to life for decision-makers

CafeClima is a free, publicly available tool in both English and Spanish. The platform is powered by the  International Multi-Location Variety Trial (IMLVT), a decade-long global research initiative led by WCR in partnership with national coffee institutes in 18 countries. The platform includes performance data on 26 of the world’s top-performing varieties across a diverse range of climatic conditions. Frequently cited research on coffee climate suitability, commissioned from the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT by WCR in 2015, was foundational science that helped build the network of IMLVT trials. The launch of the CafeClima platform brings this collaboration “full circle” by making variety performance data from the trial to the public for the first time. 

The unique variety performance data is paired with advanced climate projections from the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT. By linking variety performance data with climate models, CafeClima enables users to visualize not just where coffee may grow in 2050, but which specific varieties are most likely to thrive in those future environments. The tool identifies 'climate analogs'—current locations that mirror what a specific region's climate will look like in 2050—and offers an estimate of the potential success of a variety based on patterns identified within the ILMVT data.

"CafeClima is a unique decision-support tool that informs climate-resilient coffee combining variety selection with climate information able to reduce future uncertainty," said Dr. Eric Rahn, an Alliance coffee researcher. “Whether you are an agronomist advising farmers or a sustainability manager overseeing renovation, CafeClima is designed for you.” 

A New Model for Climate-Smart Action

CafeClima reflects the cross-disciplinary, collaborative approach that the climate crisis demands. And it is only the beginning of a new era in global coffee-production management, moving from reactive localized testing to proactive, globalized predictive modeling.

“Integrating climate modeling and global performance testing into future variety development is essential for crop breeding, particularly in perennials like coffee. As our global breeding network builds on what we’ve learned through this project, we can go even further—creating great tasting coffees that simultaneously reduce farmer risk as they make 30-year investments in new trees. With the right tools, we can manage the challenges and bring forth exciting opportunities for coffee farmers around the world,” said Dr. Long.

The development of the CafeClima platform was supported by TechnoServe, through funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as well as through targeted funding from Taylors of Harrogate and Coffee Circle together with WCR's 200+ member companies in 30 countries.